UFC Fight Night Austin Bets/Predictions

Not a big fan of this card betting-wise, so going a very conservative route.

Only doing a two-legged parlay:

Sage Northcutt (-310) over Thibault Gouti

Brandon Davis (-200) over Steven Peterson

For what I consider a very conservative bet, the payout is actually pretty decent, with a winning ticket earning you approximately even money. So if you put down $100, you’ll win over $98.

Not too many predictions for this one, either:

Burkman/Moreno will go OVER 2.5 rounds (-105)

Sarah Moras to pull off the minor upset over Lucie Pudilova (Although a minor upset according to the oddsmakers, every expert breakdown I’ve heard disagrees with me and has picked Pudilova. I don’t see the fight going how they think it is going to go)

Sage Northcutt over Thibault Gouti

Brandon Davis over Steven Peterson

Derrick Lewis over Marcin Tybura

Lewis with his back talk and retirement talk has too many question marks for me to bet on. He is just too strange a guy to entrust money on for a somewhat conservative better such as myself. Plus, he does not have too many paths to victory. If he doesn’t KO Marcin, it seems to me he’d struggle to win a decision. Having said that, if Leweis is right mentally and physically, then everything about Tybura’s fighting style tells me that Lewis is going to knock him clean out, and I don’t understand how most experts, and the oddsmakers, are missing this. I believe Tybura is being overvalued here by the experts and fans.

Only five predictions this week. Side note, I never understood why all experts force themselves to predict every fight. There’s no way you have a prediction on every fight. Sometimes you just don’t know how it will shake out. It’s OK. Not the end of the world. I’m honest enough to admit when that’s the case with me, even if it’s the majority of the fights. I do think that both Ferreira and Trinaldo are VERY live bets as underdogs if live underdog betting is your style. I think those two fights could go either way and Trinaldo in particular would get you a very decent return as an underdog.

Good luck and enjoy the fights!

UFC 221 Bet and Predictions

BET:

Jose Quiones (-120) over Teruto Ishihara

Israel Adesanya (-310) over Rob Wilkinson

Tai Tuivasa (-255) over Cyril Asker

This three-legged parlay pays 2 to 1. Put down $50, get back $100

Predictions:

Jose Quiones over Teruto Ishihara

Israel Adesanya over Rob Wilkinson

Tai Tuivasa over Cyril Asker

Tyron Pedro over Saparbek Safarov

Curtis Blaydes over Mark Hunt

Yoel Romero over Luke Rockhold

No, Woodley vs. Diaz is Nowhere Near Official Yet, and Fight Purists Should Pray It Stays That Way

It’s crazy to me how so many outlets are treating yesterday’s Woodley/Diaz news as a done deal. So far, the only source I have seen is Tyron Woodley, and he is the thirstiest competitor I have ever seen in my life. I thought Bisping as middleweight champion was the most thirsty at one time, but 85-90% of his thirst was for GSP, while Woodley does not seem to have any limitations on whom he fights regardless of how little sense it makes, as long as it gets him money. He is also much, much more publicly vocal in his thirst than Bisping was. And whenever you are more vocal than Bisping about anything, that should really drive home the point of how thirsty this guy is. It really tarnishes the welterweight belt for a champion to be so desperate to fight so many people, including a 19-11 fighter who has no welterweight resume whatsoever. But I digress.

The last time this news was spreading was also because of Tyron Woodley. Dana White explained the situation saying that the UFC lawyer went rogue and offered Nate Diaz hypothetical fights since he was turning down everything else and the UFC are contractually obligated to offer Diaz a certain amount of fights a year. Woodley then got mad at Dana White for “demoting him” when White was simply contradicting his thirsty social media journalism. You can choose which side to believe for yourself, but to White’s credit, he has been consistent in saying in every single interview since then, that Nate Diaz will not face McGregor or Woodley next. That is something he never did with GSP. He predicted GSP wouldn’t fight again, but he never outright said that he couldn’t fight a champion upon his return. It’s hard to see White’s motive for saying Diaz won’t fight Woodley instead of his go-to dodge answer of, “We’ll see what happens.” But even after White’s explanation, Woodley continued to say they offered Diaz the fight. It wouldn’t surprise me if Woodley, in his consistent thirst, is either still referring to that past fight “offer” or is simply trying to speak it into existence. This fight truly makes no sense. And until I see it booked with my own eyes or hear it’s done from an official UFC release or other very credible source, I will believe that the UFC, new owners or not, has its limits.

One last note is that on the Joe Rogan Experience, Tyron Woodley was speaking about how the sport has shifted away from true martial art values. He used a lack of meritocracy and favoritism as examples of this point. He also has said many times in the past that GSP’s unwillingness to fight him wouldn’t be so bad if he just publicly admitted he came back just for money. It boggles my mind how Woodley can be so blind to this blatant hypocrisy. As he said about GSP, this all wouldn’t be as disconcerting if he, too, were just open about it and admitted that these “legacy fights” he are after are more like desperation Hail Mary’s for any money fight he can get. Some may argue there is no shame in wanting more money for your post-career future and to be able to better provide for your family. Maybe not. While I believe a champion has an obligation to defend against the best available contender to maintain the integrity of the sport, even if one disagrees with this and believes that money is all that matters, Mr. Woodley should still follow his own advice and be open about what he’s chasing…and that he also stop criticizing the sport for going down a path that he, as a champion, is right up front directing the steering towards.

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UFC Fight Night Belem Bet and Predictions

BET:

Polyana Viana (-420) defeats Maia Stevenson

Alan Patrick vs. Damir Hadzovic OVER 2/12 Rounds (-215)

Thiago Santos (-275) defeats Anthony Smith

Michel Prazeres vs. Desmond Green OVER 2/12 Rounds (-250)

Very legit four-legged parlay that pays about 2.5 to 1. So if you put down $50 on this, you’d win back approximately $125.

Predictions (Note: I do not have a prediction for each fight):

Deiveson Figueiredo defeats Joseph Morales

Tim Means defeats Sergio Moraes

Polyana Viana defeats Maya Stevenson

Thiago Santos defeats Anthony Smith

Valentina Shevchenko defeats Priscila Cachoeira

Lyoto Machida defeats Eryk Anders

Good luck and enjoy the fights!

UFC Charlotte Bets

Justine Kish (-290) over Ji Yeon Kim
Niko Price (-300) over George Sullivan
Mirsad Bektic (-600) over Godofredo Pepey
Gregor Gillespie (-570) over Jordan Rinaldi
Dennis Bermudez (-155) over Andre Fili

This five-legged parlay pays three to one.

Predictions:
Justine Kish over Ji Yeon Kim
Niko Price over George Sullivan
Mirsad Bektic Godofredo Pepey
Gregor Gillespie over Jordan Rinaldi
Dennis Bermudez over Andre Fili
Jacare Souza over Derek Brunson