Timothy Johnson (11-3) vs. Junior Albini (13-2)
Albini’s main key to victory in his UFC debut is to use his submission skills on the mat should it go there, and avoid big shots. Should Johnson take the match to the canvas, stay persistent with the submission attempts. Albini has many submission victories, most of which by armbar or triangle choke. And as a smart fighter, he could lull Johnson into a trap where he sets himself up to score the upset victory.
For Timoth Johnson: fight the same way he always fights to nullify Albini’s keys to victory. If Albini does in fact try to point fight, in the past, he has fought tentative, slow, and cautious. Johnson is a hot-and-cold fighter. He can have long moments of inactivity, but he has much more of a propensity to land big shots than Albini does. So as long as Johnson keeps his normal pace in the standup, he should still outstrike Albini.
Timothy Johnson is a Division II All American Wrestler and also has more experience. Although many wrestlers come into trouble with jiu-jitsu practitioners, Johnson’s experience advantage should avoid that hazard. Since this is Albini’s UFC debut, the question is how good is he on the mat? He is a brown belt, so he certainly is dangerous, so perhaps Johnson would be better off keeping it standing, where he appears to be the more dangerous fighter. Either way, the only thing stopping this to be the #1 bet to make is that it is in the heavy weight division. I suppose you could also tack on the fact that we have not seen Albini tested on the big stage yet. BUT Johnson has more power, more experience, better grappling, and is more aggressive. -235 is a great bargain, even at heavyweight.
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