Danielle Taylor vs. JJ Aldrich: OVER (-410)
Explanation: Track record of decisions on both styles and their styles make the chances of this going over extremely high. I don’t think I’ve seen a line this high for the over, which shows you that people are very wise to the likelihood of this fight going the distance.
Jessica Eye vs. Kalindra Faria: OVER (-300)
Explanation: Jessica Eye is a jabber not a power puncher and has a limited ground game. She is also extremely tough to put away. Kalindra also fights in spurts and I have seen her cruise and become complacent in a fight after the first round, perhaps because she gasses out a bit. All in all, this has the makings to go over as well.
Kyung Ho-Kang (-300) defeats Guido Cannetti
Both coming off over three-year layoffs but Cannetti is coming off this layoff being 38 years old and also coming off of a USADA suspension. So we don’t know how that will change his body/strength? Kang is only 30 and, as it is, is already a better wrestler and is better in scrambles. Cannetti has a tendency to lunge in as a wild man and it seems like takedowns and top control from Kang is highly likely when Cannetti comes in recklessly. And even on the feet, neither has a decided advantage. The only clear advantage in the fight is Kang with the grappling.
Right now, this three-way parlay would give you more than even money. $100 would get you $121 right now, and this is a very, very strong ticket. Numbers fluctuate depending on the site you go to, though, but it will be in this ball park regardless.
BACKUP Bets: Since each of those three fights come first, if any of them lose, I’ll add a new ticket with these two fights:
James Krause (-160) defeats Alex White
Krause is a better all-around fighter with more fight experience. Alex White is only a boxer, while Krause throws a much higher variety and is also the much superior grappler. White is stronger but isn’t a knockout fighter, anonsidering Krause has a good chin, it seems unlikely White gets the stoppage. Krause doesn’t always start fast, but he usually uses fight IQ to solve puzzles and get into a rhythm. -160 is a pretty good value for him.
Paige VanZant (-115) defeats Jessica Rose Clark
In short, Paige is the better athlete and has only loss to top talent. People tend to forget that. She has only lost to Thug Rose, Michelle Waterson, and Tecia Torres. That’s top talent. People tend to be too high on Jessica Rose Clark. Her outstriking a stationary, flat-footed Bec Rowlings seem to have people thinking she is better than she or her track record demonstrates she is. Meanwhile, Paige has better movement, more submissions, is quicker, and is great in scrambles. What makes this fight most enticing to me is not necessarily my confidence in Paige but the value for her on the lines.
I’ve heard many breakdowns leading up to this card. Here is the winning breakdown podcast for UFC Fight Night St. Louis. So if you want a more detailed breakdown for the entire card from top to bottom, check out the below video. I do not agree with or endorse everything that is said, but he gave my favorite breakdown of this card, especially the Paige VanZant/Rose Clark fight.