UFC Fight Night Long Island Summary: Personal Bets, Predictions, Gambling Tips, and Ranking the Fights

UFC Fight Night Long Island airs tomorrow night live from the new Nassau Coliseum. Here are the bets I plan on making:

My Main Parlay:
Dennis Bermudez
Jeremy Kennedy
Timothy Johnson
Chris Wade

Bonus Parlay:
Kennedy/Bochniak OVER 2 ½ Rounds
Timothy Johnson
Chris Wade
Jimmie Rivera
Ryan LaFlare/Oliviera OVER 2 ½ Rounds

I left Bermudez out of the second one in case he craps the bed again. Both parlays would win a lot of money regardless of how much you put down, and each bet is wise. Below, you will see my somewhat detailed analysis for each fight as well as a ranking from least interesting fight to most interesting fight. Although of course, I am interested in all 13 fights.

My Most Interesting Fight List (From Least Interesting to Most Interesting)

13. Good/Zaleski:
This is probably too low for many, especially seeing as how it is the feature bout on Fox. But for one thing, I have a feeling this fight will be a dud much to the surprise of many people. And even if I’m wrong and it is an awesome fight, which it very well could be….I do not see either of these two men breaking into the elite ranks of their divisions. Therefore, I am less interested in the fight.

12. Sherman/Grabowski.
This is also probably too low for most. But at the end of the day, they have a combined UFC record of 1-4. I am adept at seeing beyond hoopla and looking at facts. Although, Sherman is more than capable of putting on a great show as he displayed in his classic against Coulter.

11.Johnson/Albini: It’s always interesting to see a new face against a veteran. That curiosity puts this fight slightly above Sherman/Grabowski. And Timothy Johnson is a fighter’s fighter so I’m interested to see how he approaches the newcomer.

10. Cummins/Villante

9. Bochniak/Kennedy

8. Kelleher/Vera

I have this placed above Bochniak/Kennedy because although I am very interested in Kennedy keeping his undefeated record, I am more interested in this fight because I want to see more than one UFC round out of Kelleher, because from the little bit of him that I saw, I saw a lot of potential.

7. Wade/Perez

6. Natal/Anders

5. Bermudez/Elkins

4. Burgos/Pepey

This may be too high for most. But I see a lot of star potential in Shane Burgos’ fighting style, especially in him being undefeated. And stylistically, I am curious to see how Burgos’ fights against another aggressive fighter with experience.

3. LaFlare/Oliviera

2. Rivera/Almeida


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UFC Fight Night Predictions and Betting Guide: Damian Grabowski vs. Chase Sherman

Damian Grabowski (20-4) vs. Chase Sherman (10-3)

I saw a public proclamation by MMA journalist Adam Martin stating that Chase Sherman is the #1 pick for the weekend’s card on Draft Kings. Now, I’m not sure if that’s because of the value that you’d get for what you spend, but Mr. Martin is not the only journalist who seems very confident in Sherman. The only reason I can think of for such confidence is due to the LACK of confidence in Mr. Grabowski.

I created this page to say what other MMA journalists cannot or are too afraid to say. And a big reason why they may lack confidence in Grabowski is because he has looked like total shit in his only two UFC outings. Grabowski boasts many years of experience and is a high-level submission grappler, but if his last two UFC contests are any indication, the 37-year-old heavyweight is on the swift decline at the worst possible time.

But here’s the thing, Chase Sherman is 1-2 in the Octagon, and though that one victory was a classic barnburner against Rashad Coulter, let’s be honest, he hasn’t looked that great, either. Mr. Martin goes on to say that Chase Sherman has star potential. Based on what exactly? One Fight of the Night against someone making his UFC debut? Of all the heavyweights that could be a rising star, why proclaim a fighter with an under .500 record as someone with star potential? This is a very questionable statement at best, and can only be based on Sherman’s appearance, because it sure as hell isn’t based on his 1-2 appearances in the Octagon.

What we have ladies and gentlemen is a fight where the fighters boast a combined UFC record of 1-4, and yet this is a televised bout. Meanwhile, Burgos and Kennedy – two undefeated fighters, as well as Wade/Perez are on Fight Pass.

Perhaps the scheduling is meant to try to boost Fight Pass, but it is also….to Mr. Martin’s point…probably meant to begin pushing Chase Sherman by feeding him an aging fighter who has been KO’d in both trips to the Octagon and making sure the world will be watching. I am willing to bet that with a KO over Grabowski, Sherman’s next fight will make it to a main card. Hopefully, if Sherman does get a major push, he earns his way with more impressive performances. However, Sherman just happens to be in the toughest division to do that. So whatever “star power” he may have might just blow through Grabowski, but it might not be able to hold up the crushing weight of a very top-heavy division.

As for who will win, Grabowski hasn’t shown anything in the Octagon to put faith in him, but he didn’t make it to the UFC or go 20-4 by luck. It’s simply a question of will Chase Sherman join the list of men who knocked him out, or will his star power fade before it got to be turned on, by being submitted by the Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt?

I’ll tell you one thing. If you think this is a sure thing or even one of the best bets of the night….you’re wrong. Although I do pick Sherman to win, I’m not betting on it.

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